Lamprell - Rises Again

http://www.lamprell.com
Having already netted a ~45% gain when the blog first highlighted Lamprell (LSE:LAM), a further article was put out in November taking a look at its current position and recommending that a stake should perhaps be taken, but as a precaution only once the results were out. Lamprell opened down on results day at 62p and swiftly moved up during the day towards a closing price around 82p. The uptrend has since continued with the share making its peak today at 98p - equivalent to a healthy 58% gain in less than a month. This article will briefly outline the results that were released.


The interim management statement was released on November 19th - it started as follows:
"Over the last month or so, the Company has worked closely with external consultants to assess more accurately the potential impact of the underperforming projects on the Company's financial performance. This review has revealed a much greater loss for the year than previously announced or anticipated, and naturally I am very disappointed. However, having now identified the issues and their potential financial impact, the Group is in a much better position to draw a line under these events and to take appropriate steps to mitigate or address the issues. The Group also is keen to focus on new projects which are more aligned with its core competencies.

The outcome of this review vindicates the Board's earlier decision to restructure the management team. In so stating, it is also important to re-affirm that the fundamental, underlying strength of the Lamprell business and its on- going competitive advantage in the marketplace is as strong as it ever has been. The bidding pipeline remains highly active and the Board has full confidence in the new management team, with the assistance of the wider dedicated and capable workforce, to take robust action to see that the performance of this Company fulfils its significant potential."

courtesy of freedigitalphotos.net
Elsewhere in the release, the firm noted that losses would amount to $105 million and a gradual increase to profitability will occur in 2013. This initially shocked investors as the previously forecast loss was ~$12m. However, this was quickly shaken off as some investors believed that the bottom had finally been hit after numerous attempts. Prior to the very first profit warning the market capitalisation of Lamprell was around £780 million. This has now shrunk to £246 million. Considering that the loss was only a fifth of the loss in market capitalisation there may still be a case for Lamprell being undervalued. In addition, within the $105m, $9.3m is being directly deferred from 2012 to 2013 via an offshore platform project among other revenue streams being transferred to 2013 due to delays.

"The Group's strong order book is approximately US$1.4 billion, with
most of the potential projects in core disciplines in which the Group has a strong track record."

Further to their financial position, Lamprell is still in discussions with lending banks over a waiver of some of its covenants that are due before year-end. It is highly likely that Lamprell will achieve the waiver not least due to its strong order book, and high status within the oil and gas services industry. Consequently, confirmation of such waivers could act as near-term share price drivers. However, as below, clarity is still not particularly high.

The Board notes the on-going investigation by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") into the Company's handling of inside information prior to 7 June 2012 and further notes that the Company is fully cooperating with the FSA. The Company will update the market on the outcome in due course.

Finally, the company re-emphasised that the current focus is on delivering projects in a timely fashion, particularly focusing upon its 'historical strengths [jack-up rigs and rig refurbishment]' so that it can 'move forward positively'. Even more promising was that the company expects the longer-term order book to amount to circa $4 billion thus it believes that 2013 will be a 'recovery year'.

The subsequent RNS revealed who is set to become Lamprell's new CEO - namely James Moffat. Moffat is highly regarded in the industry having over 35 years of experience most recently having been executive director of the Gorgon liquefied natural gas project in Western Australia. Once complete the project is expected to be the fourth largest LNG project in Australia. The presence of a CEO is also likely to return confidence to shattered investors as it reduces uncertainty. Moffat will start his role as CEO at the start of March 2013. CFO and COO positions still remain to be filled within the management structure of Lamprell.
Ultimately Lamprell has recently been on a run of excellent form following the results and whilst upside potential still exists, there are still issues that require to be sorted. Consequently, buyers who bought on the dip may wish to reduce their holdings as a precaution especially since Lamprell is fairly influenced by the wider market conditions (which are look like they are at a pivot point - the FTSE is currently meeting a band of resistance and is high in its cycle). Therefore, despite the potential for more gains, particularly in the longer term, I now have a neutral perspective on the share awaiting further information.

4 comments:

  1. great timing once again

    ReplyDelete
  2. interesting lamprell is

    Review centrica

    jk

    ReplyDelete
  3. have made so much of lamprell. over 100p today!

    ReplyDelete